Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Risk Advisory

Know where Indo-Pacific geopolitical risk reaches your organisation — and when it requires a decision.

For companies, investors and government. IPSC maps how geopolitical change reaches your suppliers, markets, routes and investments, using its own pressure, escalation and chokepoint intelligence, and sets the warning indicators that should trigger action. Fixed scope, fixed fee.

Discuss your exposure

Available on call for breaking developments. Independent. Confidential, with NDA on request.

Advisory work for Australian and New Zealand governments and Royal Commissions. Every IPSC judgement is scored in public, below.

Calls on record.

Each IPSC brief states what would confirm or kill its judgements, and when. We score them in public — including the ones we get wrong.

Call Test Status
China Coast Guard presence east of Taiwan is becoming permanent.Taiwan Strait Contingency, Aug 2026 A second task-group rotation within 60 days of 4 July. Confirmed (late)Putuoshan group rotated in during August; announced 3 Sep, one day after our 60-day window.
The held USD 14bn US arms package weakens Taiwan’s deterrence signalling.Taiwan Strait Contingency, Aug 2026 Official confirmation that the hold continues. StrengthenedUS Secretary of State confirmed the delay, 23 Sep.
Hormuz disruption locks in tanker rerouting through Indonesian straits.Indo-Pacific Chokepoints, Aug 2026 Hormuz transits stay below 40 a day through September. ScoringWindow closed 30 Sep; result due this week.
Japan’s investment screening is moving from consultation to operation.Economic Coercion, Sep 2026 FEFTA regulations and JOGMEC mandate revision published. OpenDue end Oct 2026
China is deliberately denying Japan rare-earth feedstock while keeping magnet exports flowing.Economic Coercion, Sep 2026 Weakened if normal dysprosium or terbium shipments resume. OpenDue end Dec 2026
China’s printing-equipment probe opens a new class of trade weapon.Economic Coercion, Sep 2026 A second national-security trade investigation into another product. OpenDue Feb 2027

How we score. The test and deadline are fixed when the brief is published. Outcomes are Confirmed, Strengthened, Weakened or Killed, each with a public source. Where a result falls outside the stated window, the badge says so. Last reviewed 28 September 2026.

Geopolitical risk rarely stops where it starts.

ChangeA military, political or economic development.
ExposureYour supplier, route, market or technology dependency.
TransmissionHow the disruption becomes your problem.
IndicatorThe evidence that shows the risk is changing.
DecisionThe point at which you should act.

Built on IPSC’s own intelligence.

Every engagement starts from monitoring IPSC runs continuously — not from a blank page or a generic global feed.

China Strategic Pressure Index Tracks PRC-initiated pressure across the region, separated from third-party responses.
Escalation ladders Maps the rungs of a crisis, such as Taiwan’s east coast, and the signals at each step.
Strategic Chokepoint Index Rates exposure across the region’s critical straits and corridors. View the index

See what a review produces. A six-page sample report for an anonymised Australian manufacturer, with illustrative figures: dependency map, transmission pathways, warning indicators and decision thresholds.

View sample report (PDF)

Four questions IPSC answers.

Exposure Review

Where are we exposed?

A map of your direct and hidden dependencies, disruption pathways and warning indicators. 2–3 weeks. See a sample report

From USD $12,500

Decision Intelligence

What does this mean for us now?

On call when a live development needs a response: a rapid brief or board briefing.

From USD $5,000

Scenario Testing

What if conditions deteriorate?

Stress-test plans against Taiwan, chokepoint and trade-disruption scenarios.

From USD $12,500

Strategic Warning

How will we know when risk changes?

Ongoing monitoring of your indicators, monthly assessment, and direct analyst access when something breaks.

From USD $30,000 / year

Scope and fixed fee are agreed in writing before work begins.

Building capability in-house? IPSC also runs team briefings and short courses for boards, risk teams and analysts, drawing on the same intelligence.

Explore courses

Who this is for.

EnergyLNG and oil routes, Hormuz and Malacca exposure, supply security.
Mining & critical mineralsProcessing concentration, export controls and economic coercion.
Semiconductors & technologyExposure to Taiwan pressure and export controls.
Maritime & logisticsChokepoints, rerouting and insurance.
Investors & financePolitical due diligence and portfolio exposure across the region.
Government & defenceIndependent assessment for policy, capability and inquiry work.

Tell us the decision in front of you.

A short, confidential scoping conversation, then scope, timeframe and fixed fee in writing. NDA on request. No obligation until you agree.

Not ready to talk? Read the monthly strategic briefs or explore Indo-Pacific Risk.

Discuss your exposure

IPSC provides geopolitical and strategic assessment, not legal, financial or investment advice.