IPSC Risk Advisory
IPSC GEOPOLITICAL RISK ADVISORY
IPSC identifies where Indo-Pacific geopolitical risk sits in your organisation, how a disruption could reach you through supply chains, markets, regulation, technology or maritime routes, and which indicators should trigger action.
IPSC is designed to complement existing internal capabilities and advisers. Our role is to provide specialist Indo-Pacific analytical depth where geopolitical, economic, maritime and supply-chain risks intersect.
Strategic intelligence in operation
Inspect the analytical systems before you commission us.
IPSC maintains analytical systems that monitor strategic pressure, map maritime and supply-chain dependencies, and stress-test disruption across the Indo-Pacific. These products demonstrate elements of the analytical architecture that underpins client advisory work.
Strategic warning
Warning & Monitoring
Track shifts in strategic pressure, escalation and regional activity across the principal Indo-Pacific risk theatres.
- IPSC Strategic Index
- Strategic Chokepoint Index
- Weekly Signals Digest
Advisory application: client-specific warning indicators, decision thresholds, retained monitoring and board or executive briefings.
Maritime intelligence
Chokepoint Exposure
Compare the strategic weight of critical maritime passages and examine where trade, pressure, national exposure and alternative routing converge.
- Strait League Table
- Strategic Chokepoint Map
- Country Exposure Profiles
Advisory application: route and counterparty exposure, rerouting, time-to-impact, commodity or freight sensitivity and operational resilience.
Scenario modelling
Disruption & Cascade
Stress-test a maritime disruption and examine how rerouting can transfer pressure into alternative corridors rather than eliminate the underlying exposure.
- Chokepoint Closure Simulator
- Corridor Cascade Model
Advisory application: contingency planning, scenario stress-tests, resilience assessment and leadership exercises.
Exposure analysis
Dependency Mapping
Identify where national and commercial dependencies converge on the same strategic infrastructure, passage or source of supply.
- Country × Chokepoint Dependency Matrix
- Hidden Dependency Analysis
Advisory application: Tier 2/Tier 3 dependency mapping, concentration risk, substitution options, investment exposure and Strategic Exposure Reviews.
Supply-chain intelligence
Supply-Chain Lenses
Trace strategic dependencies beyond the shipping route to identify where the actual constraint sits across sectors and infrastructure.
- Semiconductors
- Digital & Cables
- Energy
- Critical Minerals
- Food & Fertiliser
Advisory application: hidden supplier and processing dependencies, critical inputs, buffer periods, substitution and sector-specific vulnerability.
Strategic modelling
Coercion & Deterrence
Examine how coercive behaviour can normalise and how strategic actions propagate through multiple actors, alliances and deterrence relationships.
- Coercion-Normalisation Model
- Multi-Actor Deterrence Model
Advisory application: government and defence assessment, strategic interaction analysis and scenario design.
Public intelligence shows what is changing. Advisory work determines how that change intersects with existing organisational capability.
IPSC is designed to complement existing internal capabilities and advisers. Our role is to provide specialist Indo-Pacific analytical depth where geopolitical, economic, maritime and supply-chain risks intersect.
We apply the same analytical approach to a client’s own routes, suppliers, counterparties, investments, operating assumptions and decision thresholds, working with the teams that already own those risks inside the organisation.
Public analytical products are system-level research and demonstration products. They are not client-specific assessments and do not constitute legal, financial or investment advice.
What we do
Advisory built around the decision you need to make.
Most organisations already have risk, strategy, legal, investment, supply-chain or government-affairs capability. The difficulty is that geopolitical shocks can move across several of those functions at once. IPSC connects external Indo-Pacific developments to the dependencies, transmission pathways and decisions they can affect, with a defined scope, timetable and fixed fee agreed in writing before work begins.
| Engagement | Typical timeframe |
|---|---|
| Decision support | |
| Executive & board geopolitical briefing One strategic question translated into organisational implications, scenarios, indicators and decisions for senior leadership. | 1–2 weeks |
| Rapid decision brief A live geopolitical development assessed at speed: what changed, how it could reach you, what is still uncertain and what management should watch next. | 3–5 days |
| Investment & transaction geopolitical due diligence Independent assessment of geopolitical assumptions around an investment, acquisition, market entry, partnership or major regional commitment. | 2–4 weeks |
| Exposure & economic security | |
| Start here Strategic Exposure Review Maps direct and hidden dependencies, identifies three plausible transmission pathways, establishes five to ten warning indicators and attaches a decision threshold to each material exposure. | 2–3 weeks |
| China Exposure & Economic Coercion Review Tests direct and indirect exposure to Chinese markets, suppliers, processing, technology, regulation and coercive measures—including how diversification or de-risking could itself alter risk. | 3–4 weeks |
| Economic Security & Trade Policy Review Assesses how tariffs, export controls, sanctions, investment screening, technology restrictions and countermeasures could affect costs, sourcing, market access, transactions and strategy. | 3–4 weeks |
| Supply-Chain & Critical Dependency Review Looks beyond first-tier suppliers to upstream components, processing, energy, critical minerals, semiconductors, digital infrastructure and other dependencies; tests substitutability and buffer periods. | 3–5 weeks |
| Maritime Chokepoint & Corridor Stress Test Maps exposure to specific routes, cargo, suppliers and counterparties; tests closure or degradation scenarios, rerouting, secondary congestion and the time until disruption becomes material. | 3–4 weeks |
| Scenario & contingency | |
| Strategy Stress-Test & Scenario Workshop Pressure-tests a current strategy against plausible geopolitical scenarios—for example Taiwan escalation, trade fragmentation, critical-input restrictions, maritime disruption or geopolitical cyber activity—and identifies no-regret actions and trigger points. | 4–6 weeks |
| Full Exposure & Contingency Assessment Enterprise-wide assessment for organisations exposed across multiple countries, supply chains or risk channels, integrating dependencies, scenarios, warning indicators, decision thresholds and contingency options. | 6–10 weeks |
| Retained strategic warning — 12-month term | |
| Monitor Intelligence filtered to your specific exposures, material-change alerts, a monthly written assessment and a quarterly executive briefing. | Ongoing |
| Advise Adds client-specific indicators and thresholds, a monthly analyst briefing, an allowance of analyst questions and executive decision support as conditions change. | Ongoing |
| Strategic Partner Client-specific monitoring, rapid-response analyst access, quarterly leadership briefings, strategic challenge and an annual scenario exercise tied to the organisation’s principal Indo-Pacific exposures. | Ongoing |
Typically commissioned by
The internal teams that already own part of the problem.
Particularly relevant to financial services and insurance; resources, energy and critical minerals; technology and semiconductors; industrial and manufacturing; maritime and logistics; critical infrastructure; consumer and food/agriculture; and law and professional services.
Commissioned strategic studies, multi-theatre programmes and enterprise-wide engagements are scoped individually. Final fees are confirmed in a written proposal after scoping. Excludes applicable taxes; travel, specialist contributors and accelerated delivery are charged at cost. IPSC provides geopolitical and strategic assessment, not legal, financial, cyber-technical or investment advice.
Start with the decision, exposure or assumption you need tested. IPSC will scope the analysis around it.
Scope an engagementWorking with existing capability
Where IPSC fits
Geopolitical risk rarely belongs to one function. A disruption can move through regulation, markets, maritime routes, suppliers and operations before it reaches the enterprise risk framework. IPSC can work directly with one internal team or across several, providing specialist analysis without duplicating the capability the organisation already has.
| Existing capability | What it already does well | Where IPSC adds analytical depth |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise risk | Owns the risk framework, appetite, controls, escalation process and enterprise-level accountability. | External Indo-Pacific signals, scenario development, transmission pathways and warning indicators tied to material exposures. |
| Strategy | Understands corporate objectives, competitive position, strategic choices and the assumptions underpinning them. | Independent geopolitical challenge to assumptions about China, regional stability, trade, technology, regulation and market access. |
| Supply chain & procurement | Knows suppliers, inventory, contracts, logistics, lead times and operational alternatives. | Connects direct and hidden dependencies to geopolitical, maritime and economic-security developments, including upstream processing and corridor exposure. |
| Government affairs | Understands policy processes, stakeholder relationships and the government environment in key markets. | Cross-border strategic assessment of how policy shifts, economic coercion and strategic competition can interact across multiple jurisdictions. |
| Legal & compliance | Interprets legal obligations, regulatory requirements, sanctions, controls and compliance responsibilities. | Assesses the geopolitical environment surrounding sanctions, export controls, investment restrictions and regulatory divergence; IPSC does not provide legal advice. |
| Investment & markets | Understands portfolios, counterparties, valuations, markets and financial sensitivity. | Connects Indo-Pacific scenarios to country, sector, counterparty and concentration exposures and tests the geopolitical assumptions embedded in investment decisions. |
| Operations & resilience | Understands operational tolerances, continuity plans, critical assets, recovery requirements and practical constraints. | Tests how external geopolitical shocks can reach operations through fuel, shipping, infrastructure, suppliers, technology and counterparties, including time-to-impact. |
| Global advisers & intelligence platforms | Provides broad geographic coverage, specialist datasets, established methodologies or large-scale delivery capacity. | Independent Indo-Pacific specialisation and cross-domain analysis applied to a defined client question, alongside rather than in place of incumbent advisers. |
IPSC can work with one function or across several. The objective is not to duplicate existing capability, but to connect risks that are usually analysed separately.
Request a scoping callInitial strategic consultation
Start with one question.
Tell us the Indo-Pacific decision, exposure or assumption your team needs tested. IPSC will identify where specialist analysis can add to the capability you already have, then confirm the proposed scope, timeframe and fixed fee in writing.