China and Cross-Strait early warning

See strategic pressure building before it becomes a headline.

IPSC Strategic Indices convert verified, source-linked signals into structured measures of escalation, coercion, capability and supply-chain exposure. Track momentum across military, political, economic and technological domains—and trace material movements back to their underlying sources.

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Cross-Strait Escalation Index
530 ↗ accelerating
August 2024–June 2026
+218
Q2 2026 index movement
694
source-linked signals scored
13
thematic indices monitored
How to read the index: the index level is a cumulative weighted measure constructed from verified signals. A steepening line indicates an increase in the pace or assessed significance of relevant activity; it does not represent a probability forecast.
Intelligence designed for decisions

Structured evidence. Measurable momentum. Operational relevance.

IPSC Strategic Indices are designed to reveal changes in the direction and intensity of strategic pressure—not simply reproduce the daily news cycle.

01

Source-linked

Material index movements can be traced to underlying signals, source material and documented scoring decisions. The analytical trail remains visible and reviewable.

02

Momentum-focused

Cumulative measures and rolling signal flows reveal changes in the direction, intensity and concentration of strategic activity over time.

03

Decision-relevant

Scenario tripwires and sector assessments connect geopolitical developments to supply chains, markets, operations and strategic choices.

Integrated monitoring

Thirteen indices. One strategic picture.

Compare developments across military, political, economic and technological domains—from force posture and grey-zone activity to trade coercion, critical-mineral controls and supply-chain dependency.

  • Military capability and force posture Capability index
  • Cross-Strait escalation RC05 escalation index
  • Grey-zone activity RC05 grey-zone index
  • Political signalling Political-domain index
  • Military-domain pressure Military-domain index
  • Trade coercion Economic coercion index
  • Technology and digital controls Technology-controls index
  • Critical-mineral restrictions Strategic materials index
  • Supply-chain exposure Supply-chain index
  • Dependency and vulnerability Dependency index
  • Financial and investment pressure Financial-pressure index
  • Economic statecraft Statecraft index
  • Strategic pressure convergence Composite pressure index
Methodological discipline

A transparent framework for structured early warning

The indices provide a systematic way to monitor strategic pressure. They support judgement; they do not replace it.

  • Signal identification: relevant developments are collected from attributable public, official and specialist sources.
  • Verification and classification: signals are reviewed, categorised and assigned to the relevant domain or thematic index.
  • Structured scoring: each included signal is assessed for significance, confidence, direction and relevance to the monitored risk pathway.
  • Trend construction: cumulative and rolling measures reveal changes in the pace, concentration and direction of strategic pressure.
  • Analytical interpretation: index movements are assessed alongside context, competing explanations and sector-specific exposure.
  • Source traceability: relevant movements can be connected to their underlying evidence and analytical rationale.
Access options

Choose the level of intelligence support appropriate to your exposure

Begin with strategic visibility. Add tailored analysis, team access and direct advisory support as your organisational requirements increase.

Weekly Signal
Public subscription
  • Weekly strategic signal
  • Public index chart
  • Selected analytical commentary
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Individual Intelligence
Analysts and executives
  • Full dashboard access
  • Monthly index brief
  • Source-linked signal review
Request pricing
Team Intelligence
Risk, strategy and policy teams
  • Multi-user dashboard access
  • Monthly index brief
  • Quarterly sector assessment
  • Private briefing access
Request team pricing
Enterprise Advisory
Organisations with material exposure
  • Custom dependency mapping
  • Bespoke indicators and indices
  • Direct analyst access
  • Executive and board briefings
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Illustrative analytical judgement

For a Taiwan-based semiconductor supplier, the dominant near-term exposure may not be invasion, but coercive economic disruption affecting critical inputs, licensing, logistics and customers.

Illustrative finding from an IPSC Cross-Strait semiconductor supply-chain assessment.

Analytical assurance

Built for professional scrutiny

IPSC combines structured signal monitoring with regional expertise, source traceability and explicit analytical limitations.

Source-linked evidence Material movements can be traced to the underlying reporting and signal record.
Documented methodology Signals are classified and assessed through a consistent analytical framework.
Regional expertise Interpretation is informed by IPSC's Indo-Pacific research and specialist network.
Decision-oriented outputs Dashboards, briefs and advisory assessments connect signals to organisational consequences.
Strategic intelligence access

Build strategic visibility before exposure becomes disruption.

Start with the IPSC Weekly Signal, explore the dashboard through a 14-day trial, or discuss a tailored assessment with an IPSC analyst.

IPSC Strategic Intelligence Unit · Indices updated through June 2026
IPSC Strategic Indices are structured-signal early-warning instruments, not probability forecasts. Index movements may reflect both real-world developments and changes in reporting or collection intensity. Material assessments combine the structured signal record with analyst review.