Taiwan's New Leader Faces China: A Powder Keg in the Pacific?
Policy Brief by Dr Hugh S Tuckfield
Navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific requires a nuanced understanding of the fragmented governance within Taiwan, the cautious maneuvering by Beijing, and President-elect Lai Ching-te's resolve against a possible Chinese invasion. The fragmented political system in Taiwan following the 2024 election has significant implications for domestic governance as well as interactions with China and the international community. President-elect Lai Ching-te's ability to navigate this landscape is crucial to shaping Taiwan's response to external pressures and maintaining stability in the region. While fragmented governance may pose challenges such as coalition governance, policy deadlocks, and potential political instability, it also presents opportunities for compromise and moderation. This eclectic or synthetic approach allows for a comprehensive analysis of the motivations, actions, and interactions of the actors involved in cross-strait relations, emphasizing the importance of understanding the complex dynamics and diverse perspectives on the Taiwan issue.
Strategic Maneuvering and Peaceful Coexistence: A New Era for US-China Ties
Research Paper by Dr Hugh S Tuckfield
This essay examines the recent San Francisco meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping, dissecting its implications for the intricate U.S.-China relationship. Amidst a global landscape marked by competition and mistrust, the research paper delves into the potential for circumventing conflict and fostering a state of peaceful coexistence. It scrutinizes the strategic shift in rhetoric and underlying policies of both nations, emphasizing the role of non-military strategic maneuvering in achieving national objectives. The document provides a nuanced analysis of the challenges and opportunities for cooperation, offering recommendations for building mutual trust and managing differences constructively. The essay identifies the burgeoning rivalry between the United States and China, which threatens to escalate into increased military posturing, economic coercion, and political maneuvering. It explores the nature of their competition, their strategic approaches, and the imperative of managing this rivalry responsibly.
Ancient Predictions, Modern Tensions: The Unnerving Relevance of the Peloponnesian War
Policy Brief by K Mansi PhD
The relative decline of the U.S. and the ascendance of China in the global order led to a tectonic shift in the balance of power. From the Thucydidean perspective, what makes war more likely than peace is the growing entitlement of the rising power and the insecurity this engenders in the established power. One may agree or disagree with Alison’s Thucydides trap, as few scholars have discarded it as self-professed prophecy. However, the ongoing Sino-American rivalry in Indo-Pacific, with Taiwan as the major flashpoint, makes this historical analogy relevant. Another relevant factor is alliance entrapment. The contest for competitive credibility led Sparta and Athens to a strategic disaster (Nye). In the likelihood of a war, it will be as consequential as the Peloponnesian war. Whichever side wins, the region will lose.
A New Era of Cooperation: The Trilateral Leaders’ Summit at Camp David
Policy Brief by Dr Hugh S Tuckfield
Understand the Significance of the Trilateral Summit: The United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in the Indo-Pacific Landscape. A brief analysis of the historic trilateral summit that has brought together key nations in the Indo-Pacific region. An overview of the strategic agreements, security considerations, and geopolitical implications underlying this pivotal diplomatic event.
Indo-Pacific Power Players: How Geopolitical Alliances Determine the Region’s Destiny
Policy Brief by Dr Hugh S Tuckfield
Explore the Indo-Pacific geopolitical alliances that shape the region's destiny. From the US-Japan alliance to emerging partnerships, discover how these alliances contribute to security, stability, and cooperation. Uncover the challenges, power dynamics, and policy considerations in this ever-evolving landscape.